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As of last night, just 14.6% of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) were trading above their 10-day moving averages. That's about 73 stocks. Given we're selling off hard again today, this number should take another plunge tonight.
Back on April 11, I noted how only 3.4% of stocks were above this trendline. I also noted that we should be open to an oversold "bounce" at any time. The SPX did bottom that day and was able to bounce a bit higher over the next few weeks before the recent strong selling took over.
Well, we are looking at a very oversold market once again and this greatly increases the odds of a snapback rally at anytime.
Ryan Detrick, CMT, is our senior technical strategist. For more of his thoughts on the market, follow Ryan on Twitter.
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While Wall Street can't seem to shake its euro-zone anxiety, it's some disappointing domestic data that's amplified the bearish mood on the major market indexes this afternoon. With all this negative sentiment, it's not surprising to see the number of stocks at new annual highs lagging the number of stocks at new lows. So far today, the NYSE has seen 136 securities at 52-week lows, versus 14 fresh highs, while the Nasdaq has racked up 115 annual lows, and just 13 annual highs. Among equities hitting notable technical milestones in today's trading are Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY), MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (WFR), and NII Holdings, Inc. (NIHD).
Notable Stocks at Annual Highs
- Thanks to promising data for its lung cancer drug and its melanoma treatment, Array BioPharma, Inc. (ARRY - 3.99) soared to the $4.10 mark, its best price in two years. ARRY has enjoyed a 31.8% upswing over the past 52 weeks, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) now stands at 57. Four out of seven brokerages consider the pharmaceutical company worthy of a "strong buy."
- Capitalizing on a strong first-quarter showing, NetEase, Inc. (NTES - 61.25) reached a new all-time high of $63.07 today. The shares have turned in a year-over-year gain of roughly 25.6%. NTES' RSI rests at a middling 45, while eight out of 14 analysts deem the stock a "strong buy."
- Earlier today, Pharmacyclics, Inc. (PCYC - 29.21) jumped to $31 -- its highest peak in nearly 11 years. PCYC has exploded on the charts, adding more than 338% over the past year. But the stock's RSI is seated at a tame 52, while all six analysts following the biotech issue have doled out "buy" or better endorsements.
Notable Stocks at Annual Lows
- ArcelorMittal (MT - 14.42) slipped to $14.12 -- its lowest price since June 2004. This pullback has exacerbated the stock's 56.7% 12-month deficit. Meanwhile, MT's RSI of 32 is nearing oversold territory, while five out of six brokerage firms maintain a "buy" rating.
- After the close last night, MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (WFR - 1.73) announced that CFO Mark Murphy left the company and returned to Praxair, Inc. (PX). This news knocked the shares down some 19% to the $1.64 mark -- their lowest price since September 2001 -- and deepened their 79.8% year-over-year nosedive. Currently, the equity's RSI of 22 is nearing oversold territory, and just five out of 17 analysts think the semiconductor maker is a "strong buy."
- NII Holdings, Inc. (NIHD - 10.72) sawed off nearly 14% today, falling to a three-year low of $10.46. Throughout the past 52 weeks, NIHD has given up more than 71%, and its RSI is docked at a relatively slim 26. Still, seven of 12 analysts consider the laggard a "strong buy."
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Another day, another sell-off. Markets are grinding lower this week, and today could mark the fifth consecutive day that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) closes on a loss. What's somewhat worrying about this sell-off is that there hasn't been any panic. Typically, bottoms occur when the crowd reaches a level of mass hysteria, and everyone runs for the exits all at the same time. These types of days are characterized by huge spikes in volume and intraday price reversals.
Below is a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 131.98). As you'll see, we've been grinding lower very methodically, but have yet to see a big volume spike.
Until there is a massive volume spike, and potentially a bullish outside day -- as indicated by a candle on a chart where the price action gaps below the previous day's lows and closes above the highs -- I would remain very cautious. Markets typically cause the greatest pain for the greatest number of people, and the point at which everyone panics and sells their long positions and/or initiates new short positions will be an optimal point of entry for new longs. In order to catch these types of events, however, you must be very alert. Prices at the lows will only be seen for a very brief period of time.
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In rare circumstances – a handful of times per year at most – the Investor's Intelligence Short-Term Composite Indicator reading will dip into the single digits.
Yesterday, this indicator closed at 5.2.
The Investor's Intelligence Short-Term Composite Indicator is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 un-weighted market indicators. This reading is concerned only with the most recent action.
The indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100 and can provide the first indication of short-term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from oversold readings and down moves from overbought readings.
Confirmation from the NYSE % 10-week indicator (number of stocks trading above their 10-week moving average) can denote a broadly tradable move. Otherwise, this reading should be considered for the very short term only.
Currently, the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above this key trendline is 24.3% and has slid notably lower since the beginning of the year.
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Analysts are weighing in today on retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF - 39.50), online broker E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC - 8.81), and data storage specialist NetApp Inc. (NTAP - 34.64). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.
- Following its poorly received earnings report, ANF today was hammered with negative notes. Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to "market perform" from "outperform," and Citigroup booted the stock from its "top picks" roster. Meanwhile, ANF was slapped with no fewer than seven price-target cuts. Nomura and Wedbush have the lowest expectations for the shares, with both brokerage firms slashing their respective targets to $40 -- just fractionally north of Wednesday's close at $39.50. This round-number level is significant, as the stock just notched its first daily close below $40 since October 2010.
- Macquarie cut its price target on ETFC to $9 from $10, implying expected upside of just 2.2% from Wednesday's close at $8.81. The stock has been sliding lower since a failed test of resistance at its 50-week moving average in late March, and ETFC is now on track for a second consecutive Friday finish below its 10-week and 20-week trendlines. Over the past year, the shares have lost 44.6% of their value.
- BMO slashed its price targets on several tech stocks today, including NTAP -- which was hit with a cut to $42 from $45. Most analysts have higher hopes for the equity, with NTAP's average 12-month price target checking in at $47.61. The shares have taken a turn south lately along with the rest of the stock market, but NTAP is now trading just above the $33-$34 area. This region has provided a technical floor since last August.
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